Keju, Not Violence

How the Medieval Chinese Aristocracy Declined in the Tang Long Before the Huang Chao Rebellion

Erik H. Wang
New York University

English translation of: 从唐代士族衰亡看史学量化范式的科学使用, 《历史研究》2025年第6期, 第165-187, 192页.

Read the English translation on SSRN

Abstract

When and how did the medieval Chinese aristocracy decline? Generations of historians have argued that the political power of the aristocracy was gradually displaced by the imperial examination system, or Keju, during the Tang dynasty. In recent decades, however, other historians have alleged that aristocratic political dominance persisted until the Huang Chao Rebellion at the end of the Tang, pointing to the ostensibly stable share of aristocrats among high-ranking officials across the dynasty.

This article identifies several fundamental flaws in the statistical reasoning underlying claims of aristocratic persistence, including conceptual ambiguity, definitional tautology, misinterpretation of conditional probabilities, and the absence of control variables in existing quantitative analyses. Using multivariate statistical models applied to a large sample of Tang tomb epitaphs, drawn from essentially the same epitaph-based evidence used in prior quantitative studies but analyzed with more adequate methods, I show that the political advantage associated with aristocratic pedigree declined rapidly after the early Tang, while the net premium associated with Keju credentials increased steadily over time, even after controlling for aristocratic influence.

Both trends, the erosion of pedigree-based advantage and the rising importance of Keju, were already underway more than two centuries before the Huang Chao Rebellion and other violent upheavals marking the end of the Tang and its immediate successor polities. These new findings leave the social and political dimensions of the Tang-Song Transition thesis on shaky ground.

Keywords

Keju; imperial examination system; medieval Chinese aristocracy; Tang dynasty; Huang Chao Rebellion; Tang-Song Transition; aristocratic decline; quantitative history.

Suggested Citation

Wang, Erik H. 2025. “从唐代士族衰亡看史学量化范式的科学使用.” 历史研究 2025(6): 165-187, 192. English translation: “Keju, Not Violence: How the Medieval Chinese Aristocracy Declined in the Tang Long Before the Huang Chao Rebellion.”

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